Bayesian uncertainty analysis for complex physical systems modelled by computer simulators with applications to tipping points
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Bayes Linear Analysis for Complex Physical Systems Modeled by Computer Simulators
Most large and complex physical systems are studied by mathematical models, implemented as high dimensional computer simulators. While all such cases differ in physical description, each analysis of a physical system based on a computer simulator involves the same underlying sources of uncertainty. These sources are defined and described below. In addition, there is a growing field of study whi...
متن کاملPredicting tipping points in complex environmental systems.
Ecologists have long recognized that ecosystems can exist and function in one state within predictable bounds for extended periods of time and then abruptly shift to an alternate state (1–5). Desertification of grasslands, shrub expansion in the Arctic, the eutrophication of lakes, ocean acidification, the formation of marine dead zones, and the degradation of coral reefs represent real and pot...
متن کامل1 Analysis of complex computer simulators
5 Computer simulators of real world processes are often computationally expensive 6 and require many inputs. The problem of the computational expense can be handled 7 using emulation technology; however, highly-multidimensional input spaces may re8 quire more simulator runs to train and validate the emulator. We aim to reduce the 9 dimensionality of the problem by screening the simulator’s inpu...
متن کاملTipping points in Complex Coupled Life-Environment Systems
Simple models of complex phenomena provide powerful insights and suggest low-level mechanistic descriptions. The Earth system arises from the interaction of subsystems with multi-scale temporal and spatial variability; from the microbial to continental scales, operating over the course of days to geological time. System-level homeostasis has been demonstrated in a number of conceptual, artifici...
متن کاملBayesian Inference for Sensitivity Analysis of Computer Simulators, With an Application to Radiative Transfer Models
Computer simulators are used in science and technology to model physical processes or the behavior of real-world systems. Sensitivity analysis provides a useful tool for quantifying the impact of uncertainty in the computer simulator inputs on the computed output. We focus on global sensitivity analysis, which quantifies output uncertainty as all the inputs vary continuously over the input spac...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation
سال: 2015
ISSN: 1007-5704
DOI: 10.1016/j.cnsns.2015.02.006